Friday, August 22, 2025

New York Times: "Democrat Party Is Hemorrhaging Voters."

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The New York Times special report begins, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls. Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot."

"That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from."

A closer examination of some of the causes behind this massive shift is revealing.

Be informed, not misled.

The New York Times says, "The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm."

The Times says:

Few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it — whether they register on a clipboard in a supermarket parking lot, at the Department of Motor Vehicles or in the comfort of their own home.

And fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats.

In fact, for the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.

All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.

There are still more Democrats registered nationwide than Republicans, partly because big blue states like California allow people to register by party, while red states like Texas do not. But the trajectory is troublesome for Democrats, and there are growing tensions over what to do about it.

Democrats went from nearly an 11-percentage-point edge over Republicans on Election Day 2020 in those places with partisan registration to just over a 6-percentage-point edge in 2024.

Breitbart News says, "Perhaps more troubling for Democrats, the data suggests Democratic Party activists can no longer rely on the party’s tried-and-true methods to reverse the trend, leaving panicked party leaders and pundits unsure how to resurrect the party’s electoral prospects."

The numbers are staggering.

“Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot,” the report reads. “That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this,” Michael Pruser, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, told the Times. “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”

More trends paint a similarly dire picture for Democrats.

By 2024, the Republican party’s share of new registered voters nationwide “had overtaken Democrats’,” rising by nine points compared to 2018, the report details, while Democrats’ fell by almost eight percent.

The shift from 2020 to 2024 was prevalent in the four swing states with partisan data available as well – North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.

The Times report reads:

For years, the left has relied on a sprawling network of nonprofits — which solicit donations from people whose identities they need not disclose — to register Black, Latino, and younger voters. Though the groups are technically nonpartisan, the underlying assumption has been that most new voters registering would vote Democratic.

Mr. Trump upended that calculation with the inroads he made with working-class nonwhite voters.

Breitbart says, "While blind registration of young people and minorities – assumed to lean Democrat – through nonprofits is relatively easy and inexpensive, identifying and targeting potential Democrat voters is incredibly more difficult and exponentially more expensive."

Donors to left-leaning nonprofits pursuing blanket registration of young and racial minorities get significant tax breaks, while those donors giving money to PACs and partisan political groups are not eligible for such write-offs.

Besides the additional fundraising hurdles faced by political groups compared with nonprofits, donors to those groups see less return on their investment. The surgical work of searching, identifying, contacting, registering, and mobilizing voters by partisan political groups is wildly expensive, with the amount of money to successfully secure one Democrat vote running into the hundreds of dollars.

Dumping money into the existing framework is not a solution for Democrats, but no easy – or difficult – fix is apparent. Compounding the party’s problems is the lack of a leader or message.

If Trump and his movement’s heirs continue expanding the MAGA coalition, Democrats’ problems will grow with it.

These are some of the reasons for the "hemorrhaging."

There's more to the story.

Consider this:

  • For the first time in modern American history, young men are now more religious than their female peers, attending services more often and identifying as religious at higher rates.
  • This trend is particularly noticeable among Gen Z Christians, where men are remaining in church while women are leaving at a faster rate.
  • Data indicates that Gen Z and Millennials are driving a rise in commitment to Jesus, with young men showing significant increases in their commitment levels.
  • Reports highlight a "quiet revival" of Christian belief among Gen Z men, with stories of churches seeing increased attendance and conversions, particularly among young men.
  • Increased Bible reading, Bible sales, and curiosity about Jesus among young adults are reported.
  • The desire for meaning and hope, a "spiritual longing", is identified as a factor driving this trend.

CBN reported this last Easter: "Pastors typically expect Easter Sunday to be their biggest church service of the year, and in 2025, many around the country experienced more than the normal 'Easter bump' in attendance.  The catalyst appears to be younger men filling the pews and saying yes to Jesus."

Senior Pastor Greg Laurie tells CBN News that Harvest Church in California saw a great turnout on Easter Sunday.  What caught him by surprise, however, happened at the end when a large number of people gave their lives to Christ. 

"We saw 500 people make a profession of faith. We called them forward in public invitations. It was fantastic. I can't remember an Easter where we had a response like that," Laurie said. 

Fox News said this last Sunday: "The Bible is having a moment. It’s true: Younger generations are showing an unmistakable but surprising openness to the Bible. They are driving a sizable increase in Americans who have seemingly rediscovered the Bible and made a personal commitment to Jesus, according to many sources, including a recent Barna study."

Charlie Kirk with Turning Point USA says it's "Woodstock in reverse."

Joe Rogan has recently begun attending church because, in his words, of the influence of this movement among the young.

Takeaway

As Charles Spurgeon once said, "The Word of God is like a lion. You don’t have to defend a lion. All you have to do is let the lion loose, and it will defend itself." 

The folks at the Museum of the Bible say, "The book of Nehemiah tells how the Israelites worshiped and wept when they 'rediscovered' the Scriptures in the temple after the Babylonian exile."

Pastor Greg Laurie calls it an exciting sign that young men are leading in this spiritual revival..

"And I think one of the reasons for it is just that men have been so beaten down in the last decade or so. They're tired of being brow-beaten and young men specifically being told it's bad to be a man, it's bad to be masculine. And there's been a reaction. And I think it's a good reaction," Laurie said.

David Kinnaman, CEO of the Barna Research Group, says that a new study supports these findings among young men and shows an overall increase of nearly 30 million Americans who say they've committed their lives to Christ compared to 5 years ago.

"I think it represents the idea that commitment to Christ, spiritual openness, it's bubbling over into unexpected places of our society today," Kinnaman said.

Politics always follow revival and spiritual renewal.

Politics are always downstream from a nation's spirituality.

Be Informed. Be Blessed. Be Prayerful.

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