Thursday, October 29, 2026

TPUSA: "Polls Are One Thing. Turnout is Another."

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The midterms are just days away, and while Republicans are said to be trailing in the polls, the outcome will come down to turnout. 

That was the message Tuesday from Turning Point USA’s Andrew Kolvet, who said the organization’s ground game is focused on getting enough Republicans to the polls to push them over the finish line.

TPUSA says what they are finding is very different from what the media is reporting about midterm election turnout.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who is campaigning across the country, says his experience is the same ---very different from the polls. 

In fact, he says the polls are simply getting it wrong.

Be informed, not misled.

The ground game is focused on getting enough Republicans to the polls to push them over the finish line.

President Trump’s effort to make the midterms a referendum on himself, Kolvet argued gives his supporters a powerful reason to vote. And according to what TPUSA is seeing on the ground in Arizona, Texas, and Michigan, Republicans are showing up in droves for early voting, while Democrats have yet to solve their enthusiasm problem.

Kolvet posted this on social media:

In presidential elections, 160 million ballots are cast.

In a midterm, only ~100 million.

This is a base turnout operation. No one has a connection with his base like President Trump - not even Obama - and we are already seeing signs that his barnstorming the country is energizing Republicans.

Kolvet also told Fox News Jessie Waters, "I was just texting with my contacts in Texas, Jesse. They are loving what they're seeing the last couple of days. The rurals are getting out. The Bible Belt communities are getting out. They can't stand Talarico. They don't trust him. And so we're going to see a late surge there. And we're seeing that also in Arizona. I will tell you, we're on the ground in Arizona. You mentioned the Indians are not coming out. You mentioned that the youth vote is depressed. And that's an enthusiasm problem that the Democrats haven't solved yet. So, yeah, maybe they've soured a little bit on this policy or the Iran war. But guess what? They're not rushing to the left either. So the ground game is working. The early votes are coming in. And we like where we stand."

Are the Republicans overly optimistic?

I think there is good reason to believe the polls may be off---they're certainly biased in their polling.

Townhall reported this last week:

We’ve had multiple instances of polling firms admitting their surveys are trash, part of an ongoing social experiment to meddle with this industry, which has severely degraded in quality since the 2016 election. 

In Wisconsin, a firm shut down after admitting it had pushed a fake survey that put leftist Francesca Hong at least 20 points ahead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. She lost by a razor-thin margin. 

Recently, Wedgewood said its polls were fake. Both said they were conducting social experiments. Now, SoCal Strategies is another firm that might be dabbling in this funny business.

I think the entire fraudulent polling industry is collapsing before our eyes. Political polling has become a tool used to mislead the public, not give accurate reports on public opinion.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is optimistic.

A few days ago, he said, "We have a week to go before the pivotal midterm election that will determine control of Congress and the fate of President Trump's agenda for the remainder of his term. Speaker Mike Johnson has announced another campaign blitz, where he will visit 13 states and 21 districts between now and November 3."

He is working alongside more than 40 incumbents and candidates in these last days of the campaign. This marks the last push of an incredibly busy month of campaigning. 

This blitz comes on the heels of Mike Johnson overseeing historic fundraising for House races, raising more than $30 million in the third quarter and more than $156 million for the cycle. Coupled with what the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a Johnson-endorsed PAC, has raised, Republicans have taken in well over $410 million this cycle.

Earlier, he said, "In the final week until this fateful Election Day, I am doubling down on my efforts to defy history and defend our majority. I've seen incredible grassroots energy in scores of districts from coast to coast, and I look forward to finishing this final campaign blitz strong and turning out the vote," Speaker Johnson said. "In the stark contrast between common sense Republicans and the crazy far-left Democrats, House Republicans have the resources to compete and strong candidates on the ballot who will deliver for their constituents, and voters know what's at stake."

What is at stake in this midterm election?

The stakes are extremely high this election cycle. America is at stake. Every Christian needs to vote!

To my Christian friends who are voting for the Democrats, what exactly are you voting for? 

  • Guys in girls' locker rooms?
  • The end of Israel?
  • Sharia law?
  • Abortion?
  • Dismemberment of babies in the womb?
  • Same sex "marriage"? 
  • No more police or jails?
  • In support of illegal aliens and cartels running some of our cities, like my hometown, Yakima, WA?
  • More fraud?
  • More gun control?
  • Loss of religious freedom?
  • Hatred of Trump?

Be Prayerful. Be very prayerful. VOTE right.